ISSN 1674-3865  CN 21-1569/R
主管：国家卫生健康委员会
主办：中国医师协会
　　　辽宁省基础医学研究所
　　　辽宁中医药大学附属医院
中国中西医结合儿科学

中国中西医结合儿科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 10 ›› Issue (3): 232-235.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-3865.2018.03.015

• 临床研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

ARIMA模型在兰州市城关区医院儿科住院的严重急性呼吸道感染病例数预测中的应用

耿文飞，孙晶，黄玲，葛一娴   

  1. 730030 兰州，兰州市城关区人民医院儿科
  • 出版日期:2018-06-25 发布日期:2018-11-19
  • 通讯作者: 耿文飞，E-mail：411418763@qq.com
  • 作者简介:耿文飞（1972-），女，副主任医师。研究方向：儿科呼吸系统疾病的诊治及保健

Application of ARIMA model in predicting the case number of severe acute respiratory tract infection in Pediatric Department of Chengguan District Hospital, Lanzhou

GENG Wenfei，SUN Jing，HUANG Ling，GE Yixian   

  1. Chengguan District People's Hospital of Lanzhou，Lanzhou 730030，China
  • Online:2018-06-25 Published:2018-11-19

PDF (PC)

92

摘要：
目的
对兰州市城关区人民医院儿科收治的住院严重急性呼吸道感染病例进行自回归滑动平均混合（ARIMA）建模，判断模型的建模效果，并进行预测。
方法
选取兰州市城关区人民医院2010年1月至2016年6月儿科住院严重急性呼吸道感染病例数数据作为ARIMA模型的建模部分，2016年7～12月数据作为模型验证部分，比较模型的拟合和预测效果。
结果
2010年1月至2016年6月在兰州市城关区人民医院儿科收治的住院严重急性呼吸道感染病例数有1、2月较低，6、7月较高的季节因素，ARIMA(1，1，2)×(2，1，0)12模型拟合的效果较好，该模型在测试集上验证平均绝对百分比误差达到31.30，均方根误差达到11.49，将2016年7～12月数据作为验证集，验证结果相对误差为2219%。
结论
所建立ARIMA(1，1，2)×(2，1，0)12模型在测试集上拟合效果好，在验证集上预测精度高，我院儿科应用该模型在住院严重急性呼吸道感染病例数的预测和预警可达到较好的效果。

关键词: 严重急性呼吸道感染, 指数平滑法, ARIMA模型, 发病率, 预测, 儿童

Abstract:
Objective
To establish an ARIMA model for inpatients with severe acute respiratory infection in Pediatric Department of Chengguan District People's Hospital of Lanzhou, and to judge the modeling result and make predictions.
Methods
The number of cases of severe acute respiratory infections from January 2010 to June 2016 in the People's Hospital of Chengguan District of Lanzhou City was selected as the modeling part of the ARIMA model. From July to December 2016, the data from July to December 2016 was used as a model validation part to obtain the model's fitting and prediction effect.
Results
From January 2010 to June 2016, the number of severe acute respiratory infections admitted to the Department of Pediatrics of Chengguan District People's Hospital of Lanzhou City was lower in January and February, and higher in June and July, showing a seasonable trend. ARIMA(1,1,2)×(2,1,0)12 model fitting effect was good. The average absolute percentage error of the model verified on the test set was 31.30;the root-mean-square error was 11.49.Taking the data from July to December 2016 as the verification set, the relative error of the verification result was 22.19%.
Conclusion
The established ARIMA(1,1,2)×(2,1,0)12 model has a good fitting effect on the test set. The prediction accuracy on the validation set is high. This model has been applied in the Pediatric Department of our hospital to predict the case number of sever acute respiratory tract infection and to send alarm, which has achieved good results.

Key words: Severe acute respiratory infection, Exponential smoothing method, ARIMA model, Incidence, Prediction, Children