ISSN 1674-3865  CN 21-1569/R
主管：国家卫生健康委员会
主办：中国医师协会
　　　辽宁省基础医学研究所
　　　辽宁中医药大学附属医院
中国中西医结合儿科学

中国中西医结合儿科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 8 ›› Issue (3): 356-358.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-3865.2016.03.038

• 调查研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

沈阳市和平区十年内5岁以下儿童死亡原因分析

高欣   

  1. 110001 沈阳，沈阳市和平区南站社区卫生服务中心儿保科
  • 出版日期:2016-06-25 发布日期:2018-11-19
  • 作者简介:高欣(1963-)，女，主治医师。研究方向：儿童保健，E-mail：niugx@sina.com

Analysis of the causes of death in children under 5 years old in the Heping District of Shenyang City in the recent ten years

GAO Xin   

  1. Heping District South Station Community Health Service Center，Shenyang 110001，China.
  • Online:2016-06-25 Published:2018-11-19

PDF (PC)

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摘要： 目的:为降低5岁以下儿童死亡率，了解死亡原因，对监测资料进行分析。
方法:描述死亡率变化趋势，进行死因分析，使用灰色模型［GM(1，1)］和BP人工神经网络对死亡率进行预测。
结果:5岁以下儿童死亡率总体呈下降趋势，近4年死亡率较低，有一定程度的波动，偶有回升。主要死因为早产低体质量、先天性心脏病、其他先天异常，伤害死亡的顺位有所上升。BP人工神经网络方法的平均误差率为2.68%，大大低于灰色模型的14.06%。
结论:应加强早产低体质量、先天性心脏病、其他先天异常的预防保健工作，重视儿童伤害的预防，确保死亡率下降的现有成果|BP人工神经网络法优于灰色模型法。

关键词: 死亡, 死因分析, 监测, 儿童

Abstract: Objective:To reduce the mortality of children under 5 years of age,to understand the cause of death,and to analyse the monitoring data.
Methods:Describe the trends in mortality,perform analysis of death causes,and use the grey model［GM (1,1)］ and BP artificial neural network to predict mortality.
Results:The total mortality in children under five years old was decreased,being lower in the recent 4 years,with a certain degree of volatility and occasional increases.The main cause of death was premature low birth weight,congenital heart disease and other congenital anomalies,with the death due to injury ranking higher.The average error rate of the BP artificial neural network method was 2.68%,which was much lower than that of the grey model(14.06%).
Conclusion:We should strengthen prevention and health care work in premature low weight,congenital heart disease and other congenital anomalies and pay attention to prevention of child injury in order to ensure the existing achievement of mortality decline.BP artificial neural network method is better than the grey model method.

Key words: Death, Analysis of cause of death, Monitoring, Children