ISSN 1674-3865  CN 21-1569/R
主管：国家卫生健康委员会
主办：中国医师协会
　　　辽宁省基础医学研究所
　　　辽宁中医药大学附属医院
中国中西医结合儿科学

中国中西医结合儿科学 ›› 2020, Vol. 12 ›› Issue (4): 304-308.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-3865.2020.04.008

• 临床研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于时间序列对儿童喘息性疾病发病季节趋势的研究

倪晓良，梁兆雄，邓丽君，谭雅婷，李健民   

  1. 510120 广州，广州中医药大学第二临床医学院，广东省中医院儿科（倪晓良，梁兆雄，邓丽君，谭雅婷），脾胃病科（李健民）
  • 出版日期:2020-08-25 发布日期:2021-05-17
  • 通讯作者: 李健民，E-mail：85307848@qq.com
  • 作者简介:倪晓良（1990-），男，医学硕士，医师。研究方向：中医药治疗小儿呼吸、消化系统疾病
  • 基金资助:
    广东省中医儿科重点建设项目（01030213）

A study on the seasonal trend of asthmatic diseases in children based on time series

  • Online:2020-08-25 Published:2021-05-17

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摘要： 目的 对儿科急诊喘息患儿就诊的季节规律进行分析及探讨。
方法 统计来自广东省中医院大德路院区2014年1月至2019年12月儿科急诊诊治的喘息性疾病患儿的就诊人次，并基于SPSS Statistics 24软件的时间序列预测模块对数据进行分析，对原始序列进行季节性分解、平稳化处理、建立并筛选出最佳模型、对模型的拟合效果及预测效果评价，其中2013年1月至2019年6月的数据用于建模，2019年7～12月的数据作为内部验证集，评估模型的预测效果。
结果 原始序列及季节性因素序列均体现出较明显的季节趋势，对原始序列做平稳化处理、筛选出指数平滑模型，模型具有较好的拟合能力，预测值均落在95%的置信区间内。
结论 儿童喘息性疾病的发病具有明显的季节趋势。

关键词: 喘息, 季节, 时间序列, 儿童

Abstract: Objective To analyze and study the seasonal regularity of wheezing children in pediatric emergency.
Methods Count and record the visits of children with wheezing diseases in Guangdong Provincial Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine from January 2014 to December 2019. Based on the time series prediction module of SPSS Statistics 24 software, the data were analyzed; the original series were seasonally decomposed, stabilized; the best model was established and selected; the fitting effect and prediction effect of the model were evaluated. Among them, the data from January 2013 to June 2019 were used for modeling, and the data from July to December 2019 were used as an internal verification set to evaluate the prediction effect of the model.
Results Both the original series and the seasonal factor series showed obvious seasonal trend, and the exponential smoothing model was selected by smoothing the original series. The model had good fitting ability, and the predicted values were within 95% confidence interval.
Conclusion The incidence of wheezing diseases in children has an obvious seasonal trend.

Key words: Wheezing, Seasons, Time series, Children