ISSN 1674-3865  CN 21-1569/R
主管：国家卫生健康委员会
主办：中国医师协会
　　　辽宁省基础医学研究所
　　　辽宁中医药大学附属医院
中国中西医结合儿科学

中国中西医结合儿科学 ›› 2021, Vol. 13 ›› Issue (5): 428-431.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-3865.2021.05.016

• 调查研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

河南省婴儿死亡率和5岁以下儿童死亡率变化及预测分析

张俊清, 郭亮, 师灿南, 王军
  

  1. 450000 郑州，郑州大学第三附属医院、河南省妇幼保健院医务部（张俊清，郭亮，师灿南），院办（王军）
  • 收稿日期:2020-11-19 出版日期:2021-10-25 上线日期:2021-10-25
  • 通讯作者: 王军，E-mail:wj3028@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    河南省医学科技攻关计划省部共建项目（SBGJ2018048）

Changes and prediction analysis of the mortality of infants and children under 5 years old in Henan Province

ZHANG Junqing, GUO Liang, SHI Cannan, WANG Jun#br#   

  1. The Third Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Maternal and Child Health Hospital of Henan Province, Zhengzhou 450000, China
  • Received:2020-11-19 Published:2021-10-25 Online:2021-10-25
  • Contact: WANG Jun，E-mail:wj3028@163.com

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摘要： 目的:对河南省婴儿死亡率和5岁以下儿童死亡率进行分析，并对其发展情况进行预测。方法:本文对2005～2017河南省婴儿死亡率和5岁以下儿童死亡率进行描述分析，并选用GM（1,1）灰色预测模型进行统计分析。结果:2005～2017年河南省全省、城市及农村的婴儿死亡率和5岁以下儿童死亡率均呈下降趋势，但城乡差异和地域差异明显，灰色预测模型的拟合效果均较好。结论:GM(1，1)模型适用于对婴儿死亡率和5岁以下儿童死亡率指标的预测，拟合精度均较高;预测未来三年各指标将继续逐年下降。

关键词: 婴儿死亡率, 5岁以下儿童死亡率, 河南省, GM（1,1）模型, 预测分析

Abstract: Objective:To analyze the mortality of infants and children under 5 years old in Henan Province, and to predict its trend.Methods:A descriptive analysis was made in the mortality of infants and children under 5 years old in Henan Province between 2005 and 2017, and GM(1,1) gray prediction model was used to make a statistical analysis.Results:The mortality of infants and children under 5 years old in the whole province (cities and the countryside) had a trend of decrease, but the differences between cities and the countryside, and among different areas were significant; the fitting effect of the gray prediction model was quite good.1) model fitting was good.Conclusion:GM(1,1) model is suitable for the prediction of the mortality indexes in infants and children under 5 years old, and the fitting precision is high. It is predicted that the indexes will keep decreasing year by year in the following three years.

Key words: Mortality of infants, Mortality of children under 5 years old, Henan Province, GM(1,1) model, Prediction analysis