Chinese Pediatrics of Integrated Traditional and Western Medicine ›› 2021, Vol. 13 ›› Issue (5): 428-431.
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Objective:To analyze the mortality of infants and children under 5 years old in Henan Province, and to predict its trend.#br# Methods:A descriptive analysis was made in the mortality of infants and children under 5 years old in Henan Province between 2005 and 2017, and GM(1,1) gray prediction model was used to make a statistical analysis.#br# Results:The mortality of infants and children under 5 years old in the whole province (cities and the countryside) had a trend of decrease, but the differences between cities and the countryside, and among different areas were significant; the fitting effect of the gray prediction model was quite good.1) model fitting was good.#br# Conclusion:GM(1,1) model is suitable for the prediction of the mortality indexes in infants and children under 5 years old, and the fitting precision is high. It is predicted that the indexes will keep decreasing year by year in the following three years.