ISSN 1674-3865  CN 21-1569/R
主管:国家卫生和计划生育委员会
主办:中国医师协会
   辽宁省基础医学研究所
   辽宁中医药大学附属医院

Chinese Pediatrics of Integrated Traditional and Western Medicine ›› 2020, Vol. 12 ›› Issue (4): 304-308.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-3865.2020.04.008

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A study on the seasonal trend of asthmatic diseases in children based on time series

  

  • Online:2020-08-25 Published:2021-05-17

Abstract: Objective To analyze and study the seasonal regularity of wheezing children in pediatric emergency.
Methods Count and record the visits of children with wheezing diseases in Guangdong Provincial Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine from January 2014 to December 2019. Based on the time series prediction module of SPSS Statistics 24 software, the data were analyzed; the original series were seasonally decomposed, stabilized; the best model was established and selected; the fitting effect and prediction effect of the model were evaluated. Among them, the data from January 2013 to June 2019 were used for modeling, and the data from July to December 2019 were used as an internal verification set to evaluate the prediction effect of the model.
Results Both the original series and the seasonal factor series showed obvious seasonal trend, and the exponential smoothing model was selected by smoothing the original series. The model had good fitting ability, and the predicted values were within 95% confidence interval.
Conclusion The incidence of wheezing diseases in children has an obvious seasonal trend.

Key words: Wheezing, Seasons, Time series, Children