Abstract: Objective:To analyze the mortality of infants and children under 5 years old in Henan Province, and to predict its trend.Methods:A descriptive analysis was made in the mortality of infants and children under 5 years old in Henan Province between 2005 and 2017, and GM(1,1) gray prediction model was used to make a statistical analysis.Results:The mortality of infants and children under 5 years old in the whole province (cities and the countryside) had a trend of decrease, but the differences between cities and the countryside, and among different areas were significant; the fitting effect of the gray prediction model was quite good.1) model fitting was good.Conclusion:GM(1,1) model is suitable for the prediction of the mortality indexes in infants and children under 5 years old, and the fitting precision is high. It is predicted that the indexes will keep decreasing year by year in the following three years.

Key words: Mortality of infants, Mortality of children under 5 years old, Henan Province, GM(1,1) model, Prediction analysis