ISSN 1674-3865  CN 21-1569/R
主管：国家卫生和计划生育委员会
主办：中国医师协会
　　　辽宁省基础医学研究所
　　　辽宁中医药大学附属医院
Chinese Pediatrics of Integrated Traditional and Western Medicine

Chinese Pediatrics of Integrated Traditional and Western Medicine ›› 2021, Vol. 13 ›› Issue (5): 428-431.

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Changes and prediction analysis of the mortality of infants and children under 5 years old in Henan Province

Objective:To analyze the mortality of infants and children under 5 years old in Henan Province, and to predict its trend.#br# Methods:A descriptive analysis was made in the mortality of infants and children under 5 years old in Henan Province between 2005 and 2017, and GM(1,1) gray prediction model was used to make a statistical analysis.#br# Results:The mortality of infants and children under 5 years old in the whole province (cities and the countryside) had a trend of decrease, but the differences between cities and the countryside, and among different areas were significant; the fitting effect of the gray prediction model was quite good.1) model fitting was good.#br# Conclusion:GM(1,1) model is suitable for the prediction of the mortality indexes in infants and children under 5 years old, and the fitting precision is high. It is predicted that the indexes will keep decreasing year by year in the following three years.   

  1. The Third Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Maternal and Child Health Hospital of Henan Province, Zhengzhou 450000, China
  • Online:2021-10-25 Published:2021-12-06

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Abstract: Objective:To analyze the mortality of infants and children under 5 years old in Henan Province, and to predict its trend.
Methods:A descriptive analysis was made in the mortality of infants and children under 5 years old in Henan Province between 2005 and 2017, and GM(1,1) gray prediction model was used to make a statistical analysis.
Results:The mortality of infants and children under 5 years old in the whole province (cities and the countryside) had a trend of decrease, but the differences between cities and the countryside, and among different areas were significant; the fitting effect of the gray prediction model was quite good.1) model fitting was good.
Conclusion:GM(1,1) model is suitable for the prediction of the mortality indexes in infants and children under 5 years old, and the fitting precision is high. It is predicted that the indexes will keep decreasing year by year in the following three years.

Key words: Mortality of infants, Mortality of children under 5 years old, Henan Province, GM(1,1) model, Prediction analysis